By: Jim Peterson
Posted: Jun 28 2024
In the 2024 marketing year, which began on June 1, USDA is projecting a 5% increase in overall demand for the U.S. wheat crop. Exports are projected to reach 800 million bushels, up 11% from last year. Domestic demand is projected to increase 1% to 1.12 billion bushels, compared to 1.11 billion a year ago. Food use will account for 962 million bushels, steady with a year ago, while feed use grows to 100 million bushels, up 10 million.
The current export sales pace through mid-June is up 34% from 2023 at 199 million bushels. Percentage gains appear dramatic, since 2023 was one of our historically low years, but there is no question the export environment is more favorable for U.S. origin wheat this year. Stronger sales are most evident in Mexico, Central and South America, and the Asian region.
By class, Soft white exports are up 90% at 48 million bushels, followed by HRW exports up 52% at 46 million bushels. HRS export sales are 47% higher at 69 million bushels, while soft red winter is down by 35% to 33 million bushels. Durum sales are up 18% at 4 million bushels.
High quality harvests across classes will be an important variable in sustaining the stronger early export sales pace from the United States. Early harvest reports in HRW indicate good kernel quality, with lower than average protein levels in areas. In SRW, pockets of higher Fusarium disease pressures may impact overall quality in that class compared to a year ago. The wet start to the first half of the growing season for HRS will also heighten disease threats on the crop. If high quality crops are secured across classes, that would certainly provide continued optimism for U.S. exports throughout the marketing year, and temper the projected build-up in inventories due to expected increases in production.
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