Tariffs –Current Impacts on Wheat

By: Erica Olson

Posted: May 1, 2025

Producers and industry alike have been monitoring the latest tariff news to be in tune as to how any tariffs may or may not impact wheat exports. The short summary is that, so far, tariffs and reciprocal tariffs have had little impact on wheat. Read below for information on the US wheat import and export balance and our current take on tariff impacts.

US Wheat Imports/Exports

On average the US exports half of our annual production, or about 820 million bushels. On the flip side, while wheat imports into the US have increased, the average import level is around 120 million bushels, or 6% of total use. The majority of imports are HRS and durum shipments coming directly from Canada, with some smaller shipments of winter and feed wheat occasionally entering from Europe.

Chinese Tariffs

The tariff rate on US wheat to China now stands at 140%. While this could potentially impact exports, US wheat exports to China tend to vary substantially from year to year. For example, total US wheat exports to China last year were 78 million bushels, making them our third largest export market. However, for the current marketing year, purchases are only at 5 million bushels. This trend of lower purchases for this year was an issue before tariff discussions. For HRS specifically, purchases from China were minimal, but the country has also been a top ten market in some years. China is an important customer, but the consistency of their purchases varies quite substantially.

Tariff Implication on top HRS Markets

The customer base for HRS is largely concentrated in the Asian region, Mexico and some European markets. Obviously, any retaliatory tariffs, especially from our largest customers, would be of concern. While the US does have a tariff rate of 25% on some products from Mexico, products under the USMCA trade agreement are exempt. Thus, we have seen no retaliatory tariffs at this time – good news for our second largest market. As of the print date for this newsletter, no major customer countries other than China have implemented any retaliatory tariffs, due in large part to the US Administration’s 90 day pause on increased tariffs (the US has a 10% on products from most countries). Canada does have a 25% tariff on US wheat imports, though market opportunities are limited.

Tariff Implications on Durum Exports

On average, the US exports about 25 million bushels of durum, representing about 25% of our total use. Italy and Algeria represent the bulk of the export markets, and so far, no retaliatory tariffs have been put into place by any major durum importers. With US exports limited to just a few primary countries, any retaliatory tariffs could cause big impacts to trade flows.

Conclusion

There is no doubt that increased discussion on tariffs have caused market uncertainty. Aside from the market price impacts, the uncertainty can cause strain to trade relationships that have taken decades to build. Lack of clarity on the level and tenure of tariffs may also alter the timing of planned purchases. North Dakota producers are hopeful that successful trade agreements will be put into place to maintain our place as a supplier of high-quality wheat to the world.