Weekly Wheat Update
July 21, 2026 Update
The Heat Is On
Above-normal temps and below-normal July rain stress the crop as spring wheat starts to turn ripe
The past 7-10 days brought temperatures that were well above normal. These conditions did stress the spring wheat and durum crops, especially in areas that are short on moisture, however, the full effects of the weather will not be immediately known. As the map below shows, rainfall for the month of July is well below normal levels. Despite the hot temperatures, producers in some areas report the wheat crop still looks good and is surviving on moisture received earlier in the growing season. In other areas, producers are haying their spring wheat and durum crops for livestock due to poor conditions. The condition of the spring wheat and durum crops vary quite a bit, depending on moisture received earlier in the growing seasons, planting date, disease pressure, and soil type. Some very isolated areas received rainfall of up to an inch over the last week which was of huge benefit to the crops in those areas. Temperatures will remain at average levels for the next few days before trending above average again for the weekend.
Progress reported as of 7/19/2026
USDA/NASS Crop Progress Reports
Wheat Headed by State | 7/19/2026 | Last Week | Last Year | 5 Yr Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
US HRS | 86% | 72% | 76% | 72% |
Minnesota HRS | 95% | 78% | 82% | 81% |
Montana HRS | 59% | 41% | 55% | 63% |
North Dakota HRS | 92% | 78% | 78% | 69% |
South Dakota HRS | 100% | 97% | 99% | 93% |
Montana Durum | 42% | 22% | 41% | 66% |
North Dakota Durum | 92% | 65% | 80% | 77% |
Wheat Condition by State | Very Poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US HRS | 1% | 11% | 35% | 48% | 5% | 345 |
Minnesota HRS | 0% | 1% | 10% | 80% | 9% | 397 |
Montana HRS | 1% | 20% | 54% | 24% | 1% | 304 |
North Dakota HRS | 1% | 10% | 31% | 52% | 6% | 352 |
South Dakota HRS | 2% | 8% | 48% | 40% | 2% | 332 |
North Dakota Durum | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Montana Durum | 0% | 35% | 58% | 7% | 0% | 272 |
Crop condition ratings likely don’t yet show the effects of the high temperatures and lack of rain, but the most recent USDA crop progress report did show an overall decline in crop condition ratings with 58% of North Dakota’s spring wheat crop rating in good to excellent condition, down from last week and a slightly larger percent in the poor to very poor category. Durum condition ratings remained high in this week’s report, but next week’s numbers may be more indicative of the impacts of the recent weather. Crop development remains at the average pace with over 90% of the spring wheat headed out and the earliest planted crop starting to turn ripe. For durum, 80% has headed out.