WMR-U.S. Durum Prices hold Premium

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: Dec 23 2024

Durum bids to producers in North Dakota and Montana remain near or above $7 per bushel, defying the more volatile and recent weakness in other wheat classes. The stronger price trend contrasts with USDA’s current projection of a nearly 70 percent increase in end of year inventories compared to a year ago.

Domestic demand remains strong at 84 million bushels, as economic pressures on U.S. households continues to drive in-home pasta demand. Export sales are currently projected to reach 25 million bushels, about 7 percent lower than a year ago. Sales as of mid-February are just 12 million bushels however, a nearly 30 percent lower pace than a year ago. Very strong Canadian durum exports, and somewhat tempered world import demand for durum, are headwinds to U.S. durum exports.

World durum inventories are still tight from a historical perspective. As the accompanying chart shows, projected inventories by June 2025 in the U.S., the EU and Canada may be marginally higher than a year ago, but still well below levels seen just 5 years ago. This is a supportive factor for durum, if there are production issues in the world 2025 durum crop. Some areas to watch include North Africa, Turkey and Russia as the combination of drought and cold temperatures have impacted durum crops to varying degrees.

Canada will likely see steady to higher acres of durum. Production may still be lower however, as yields are key variable. In the U.S., bids for durum to producers remain at $1.50 to nearly $2 per bushel premium to hard red spring wheat, depending on protein levels of hard red spring wheat. This is for nearby positions, and new crop months are not as wide. Still the steady premium throughout the year, will be a driving factor in producer decisions to plant more durum, at the expense of hard red spring wheat, in areas where durum is competitive agronomically. Given the sharp increase in durum acres last year, the level of increase in 2025 will be smaller, but an increase looks Durum bids to producers in North Dakota and Montana remain near or above $7 per bushel, defying the more volatile and recent weakness in other wheat classes. The stronger price trend contrasts with USDA’s current projection of a nearly 70 percent increase in end of year inventories compared to a year ago.

Domestic demand remains strong at 84 million bushels, as economic pressures on U.S. households continues to drive in-home pasta demand. Export sales are currently projected to reach 25 million bushels, about 7 percent lower than a year ago. Sales as of mid-February are just 12 million bushels however, a nearly 30 percent lower pace than a year ago. Very strong Canadian durum exports, and somewhat tempered world import demand for durum, are headwinds to U.S. durum exports.

World durum inventories are still tight from a historical perspective. As the accompanying chart shows, projected inventories by June 2025 in the U.S., the EU and Canada may be marginally higher than a year ago, but still well below levels seen just 5 years ago. This is a supportive factor for durum, if there are production issues in the world 2025 durum crop. Some areas to watch include North Africa, Turkey and Russia as the combination of drought and cold temperatures have impacted durum crops to varying degrees.

Canada will likely see steady to higher acres of durum. Production may still be lower however, as yields are key variable. In the U.S., bids for durum to producers remain at $1.50 to nearly $2 per bushel premium to hard red spring wheat, depending on protein levels of hard red spring wheat. This is for nearby positions, and new crop months are not as wide. Still the steady premium throughout the year, will be a driving factor in producer decisions to plant more durum, at the expense of hard red spring wheat, in areas where durum is competitive agronomically. Given the sharp increase in durum acres last year, the level of increase in 2025 will be smaller, but an increase looks likely.