WMR-Record World Wheat Production Projected

By: Erica Olson

Posted: June 16, 2025

The May USDA report provided the first look at world wheat production estimates for 2025-26, and associated supply and demand values. The forecast for global wheat production is a record 29.7 billion bushels, a slight increase over last year. World consumption is projected to fall just under production at 29.69 billion bushels. While this is just the first look at 2025-26 values, it sets the tone for the market. The overall situation points to a relatively stable supply and demand picture for the next year, at this point in time.

The EU is expected to have the largest year on year increase with production projected 12% higher to reach 5.5 billion bushels. Last year’s crop was plagued by adverse weather condition, pushing production to a 30-year low in some countries. This year’s weather has been more conducive and yields are projected higher. There are lingering concerns regarding potential quality loss in areas. Wheat production in Argentina could be 8% higher due to good weather and lower production costs which have boosted profitability, and plantings. The Canadian crop is estimated to be 3% higher, primarily due to higher acreage. While production in Russia is forecast to increase by 2% to 3.05 billion bushels, it remains below previous years when production was closer to 3.3-3.4 billion bushels. Weather continues to be a factor to watch in Russian wheat production. China and India, both significant wheat producers (though not generally exporters) are also expected to see increases, however, recent hot and dry conditions in China could trim estimates in future reports.

Wheat production in Kazakhstan could be 22% lower due to speculation that dry conditions could adversely impact yields. While wheat production in Australia is projected to fall by 9%, the estimate of 1.14 billion bushels is still above the ten-year average. Reductions in production are based of drier conditions in some areas of the country. Production in the U.S. is forecast to fall by 3% based off reduced area and slightly lower overall yields compared to last year. Production in Ukraine is also estimated to be slightly lower than last year.

The corresponding changes in production will undoubtedly result in shifts in trade. The USDA WASDE report projects a 254 million bushel increase in trade with the largest year to year increases in exports coming primarily from the EU and smaller amounts from Argentina and Ukraine. If the current projections for production and use hold, ending stocks are estimated at 9.76 billion bushels, a marginal increase from last year.