WMR - Record World Wheat Crop

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: January 15, 2026

The 2025 production year for world wheat is one for the record books. Excellent growing conditions in most of the major production countries led to strong yields, more than offsetting steady to lower planted area in key regions. A record crop has been projected for a few months, but USDA added to that tally in it’s January 2026 supply and demand report, boosting world wheat production to 30.9 billion bushels. This is 5 percent higher than last year’s level, and the seventh consecutive year of higher world production. Notable production gains were noted in Canada, the EU, Russia, Kazakhstan, Argentina, Australia, and India, with steady production in the U.S. and China.

This large crop has kept world wheat prices under pressure since late summer, and will likely keep a bearish tone in the wheat market in the near term. No shortage of supplies in the corn and soybean markets also add to pressure in the wheat market. Fortunately, world wheat consumption is projected at a record 30.3 billion bushels, marking the third straight year of gains and helping lend some support to world wheat values.

Export trade is projected at 8.1 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year, with nearly all of the major export countries and regions looking at larger volumes compared to last year. As the accompanying chart shows, only Canada, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan are projected to see lower exports compared to a year ago. The EU, Australia and Argentina will see the sharpest year to year increases. Canada’s current export pace is actually ahead of a year ago however, so further upward revisions in their exports would not be a surprise.

In spite of large supplies, there are shortages of quality from some key exporters which is helping to elevate the price premium on the world market for higher protein, higher grades of wheat. These shortages of quality are most pronounced in the EU and Argentina, but also in portions of the Russian and Australian crops. This has benefited the U.S., with overall wheat export sales through the end of December reaching 738 million bushels, nearly 20 percent higher than a year ago. In addition, it has led to a nearly $2 per bushel premium for U.S. HRS wheat at export points compared to Russian and Argentina wheat, nearly double the premium a year ago.