WMR - Largest World Durum Crop in Nine Years

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: January 15, 2026

The 2025 world durum crop is currently estimated at 1.37 billion bushels, up from 1.34 last year, and the largest crop in nine years. All of the key production regions had larger crops, with significant rebounds in Canada, the EU and North Africa, and a smaller increase in the United States. A second consecutive year of drought in Mexico, as well as production challenges in Turkey, led to smaller crops in those countries.

In the EU, strong yields and steady to slightly higher planted area led to the largest crop in seven years at just over 300 million bushels. All of the major durum areas, Italy, France, Spain and Greece, had larger crops, and production was further enhanced by expanding durum production in some non-traditional eastern European countries. Expansion in the emerging areas was driven by the price premium of durum to non-durum wheat classes.

Canada’s crop had steadily higher production estimates as the season progressed, increasing from roughly 235 million bushels estimated in September, to nearly 265 million bushels by December. This year’s production is second only to the record crop in 2016, and was supported by both higher planted area and favorable yields. An early season drought created market concerns pre-harvest, but the final crop size was well above expectations.

In North Africa, larger crops in all three key countries, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia, led to the largest regional crop in four years. Favorable moisture patterns in the spring of 2025, along with Algerian government incentives to expand production were supportive factors.

The larger crops in the EU and North Africa are leading to lower world export projections, currently projected at 315 million bushels, compared to an average of 340 million the previous two years. Canada is projected to account for roughly 200 million bushels of the export trade, with the EU and the U.S. accounting for 60 million. The balance of export trade will come from Russia, Australia and Kazakhstan. Mexico will be a net importer for a second straight year, and Turkey will also see sharply lower exports

World durum values have fallen, and the premium to non-durum wheat classes has narrowed. This is driven in part by declining export volume opportunities in the EU and North Africa, and the late-season, larger than expected revision to Canadian production. Offsetting these bearish variables is the fact that world durum consumption for food may reach a record high of 1.25 billion bushels, driven by strong demand for pasta products. Additionally, U.S. export sales as of late December have reached 15 million bushels, up 24 percent from a year ago, benefitting from quality needs in the EU, and higher demand from Mexico.