WMR-Higher Demand for HRS in 2024

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: Dec 23 2024

The 2024 U.S. hard red spring wheat crop set a record for yields, driving production to 503 million bushels, 8% higher than a year ago. Available supplies for the marketing year are up 11% from a year ago, due to higher beginning stocks and a slight increase in projected imports.

These larger supplies have weighed on average market prices, but a nearly 14% potential boost in demand, if realized will be price supportive going forward, and a mitigating factor in keeping end of year stocks nearly the same as a year ago. Total demand is projected at 560 million bushels, with domestic food use at 259 million bushels, up marginally. Feed use is notably higher due to quality impacts from rain in some eastern production areas. Export demand is projected up 15% to 270 million bushels, as world supplies of higher protein, high quality wheat remain tight, even at the current premium price levels. Current U.S. HRS sales, as of late November are at 184 million bushels, up 14% compared to a year ago.

One variable to monitor going forward in the HRS Supply and Demand is imports. If the Trump Administration proceeds forward with tariffs on Canada, both HRS and durum final import levels will likely be lower. This would certainly be supportive to U.S. prices for these classes of wheat in 2025, depending on the level of pre-emptive buying that may be taking place currently by mills.