WMR-Durum Market Holds Strong

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: June 16, 2025

Prices for durum continue to hold strong, even as world production projections point to a steady crop size compared with 2024, at 1.3 billion bushels. Some recent ratcheting back in crop size in key countries, paired with very strong durum demand for food, the highest in seven years, is helping keep usage ahead of supply. In 2025, production gains in the EU and North African regions are being balanced against smaller crop expectations in the U.S., Mexico, Turkey and Kazakhstan. The lower production potential in Turkey and Mexico is helping to support the market in the nearby, as both countries have significantly lower export potential compared to recent years.

Durum plantings in Canada and the U.S. northern durum regions are expected to be steady to higher, and although the planting pace in both countries was ahead of normal, early yield projections are lower than last year, due to varying degrees of soil moisture deficits across key growing areas. Early germination has been good in most areas however, along with early crop growth. More than three-fourths of the North Dakota crop is rated in good to excellent condition. No condition ratings have been released on the Montana crop, but early crop moisture conditions have been more challenging there. In Canada, about three-fourths of their durum crop is rated good to excellent condition, but dry soils are expanding with western and more northern areas of Saskatchewan being impacted most immediately.

The International Grains Council is projecting the Canadian crop at 213 million bushels, similar to 217 million bushels last year, while Agriculture Canada is projecting a smaller crop of 200 million bushels. The U.S. crop is estimated at 74 million bushels, down from 80 million bushels. Timely rains and no excessive heat will be needed in both countries over the next two months, or crop concerns could add further support to the market, given the lower exports from Turkey and Mexico.