By: Jim Peterson
Posted: March 6, 2025
The 2024 U.S. hard red spring wheat crop is seeing stronger year-on-year demand from both domestic and export customers. This is helping to keep potential end of year inventories tighter than originally anticipated, considering the larger than expected production and USDA’s projection of higher imports as well. Combined demand is projected to reach 566 million bushels, up 15 percent from last year.
U.S. domestic demand for food is projected 2 percent higher at 260 million bushels. Competitive prices for mid protein hard red spring wheat, relative to hard red winter, as well as demand for higher protein segments of the HRS crop for blending are driving the slightly higher demand. The current projection for non-food use is 36 million bushels, more than 7 times greater than a year ago. This is solely due to a larger than normal portion of the crop which moved into feed channels, due to very low falling numbers, higher damage or atypical low protein levels in portions of the crop.
Export demand is projected at 270 million bushels, 15 percent higher than a year ago. Current sales stand at 229 million bushels, about 7 percent higher than a year ago, but somewhat lower than expectations. Sluggish sales to the Philippines, Japan, Korea and Vietnam are tempering the overall HRS export pace through the first eight months of the marketing year.
The remaining top ten markets are all showing similar to stronger export sales compared to a year ago, with Italy, Egypt, Thailand and Nigeria showing the strongest percentage gains. In these markets, a need for higher protein and quality is pushing demand to U.S. hard red spring wheat. Mexico remains a prime market for U.S. hard red spring wheat production for a second straight year, although the sales pace has waned from earlier this fall. Mills there are shifting back to greater quantities of hard red and soft red winter in the current marketing year due to logistics and more available supplies of hard red winter compared to recent drought years.
Current projections for end of year inventories show a slight increase to 197 million bushels, compared to 190 million a year ago. When the stronger demand projections are considered the stocks to use ratio is slightly tighter than a year ago. Hopefully this will provide a stronger trend in prices as we head into spring planting.
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