WMR - 2025 US Durum Acres expected to Hold Steady

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: May 1, 2025

Planting of the 2025 US HRS wheat crop was roughly one-third complete, as of the end of April. This is well ahead of the 5-year average pace. Lower than normal snow levels in many areas this winter, combined with dry soils going into winter have enabled producers to make early and quick progress in much of the region. There are exceptions, like most years, with some parts of the region facing wetter and colder soil conditions, delaying planting, in isolated areas.

Will the earlier start to planting lead to higher than expected spring wheat acres in 2025? It can be a variable that does propel final planted area higher than early spring expectations, but the disappointing price trends for wheat, and ongoing market uncertainty will likely be the more important variables in determining final planted area. The March survey of producers indicated just 9.4 million acres of hard red spring wheat would be planted in 2025. This compares to 10 million in 2024, and 10.5 million in 2023, and would be one of lowest on record.

The survey showed North Dakota planted area falling to 5.05 million, down from 5.35. Montana acres were estimated at 2.15 million, down from 2.45 million, while South Dakota acres were estimated to hold steady at 660,000 and Minnesota having a slight increase to 1.26 million, up from 1.22 million.

In North Dakota, both durum wheat and corn looked to be crops that would replace hard red spring wheat acres in 2025. Durum has held a $1 per bushel, to as much as $1.50 per bushel premium over hard red spring since the 2024 harvest, and crop insurance coverage prices are also higher for durum. In more eastern parts of North Dakota, the combination of lower protein levels, as well as some quality issues in the 2024 HRS crop dampened crop returns, despite strong yields, and corn appeared to gain favor in those areas for 2025. In Montana, sharply higher winter wheat plantings in the fall of 2024, limited acreage available for HRS. In addition, a sharp increase in lentils will compete for acres.

Final planted acreage estimates will be released at the end of June, and actual producer certification of acres released in late summer and early fall. Shifts from the early estimate will occur, and while the earlier start to planting in many areas may lessen the decline from last year, a lower acre base will likely hold due to current price trends. This will place more onus on yields for the 2025 crop, and market trends will likely need to respond if extended outlooks for a warmer, drier growing season prove true.