WMR - 2025 Hard Red Spring Situation

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: September 8, 2025

The 2025 U.S. HRS crop is currently estimated to be about 11 percent lower than last year in production, and imports are projected nearly 20 percent lower. This puts overall supplies 5 percent lower. While tighter supplies are typically price positive, the front half of the marketing year is facing challenging headwinds from a record world wheat crop, a strong U.S. HRW crop, and strong cross-over pressure from corn and soybeans.

Production is lower due to a smaller planted area, and a lower national yield of 50 bushels per acre, compared to 52.5 in 2024. Drought conditions impacted yields in Montana, and while many locations in North Dakota, Minnesota and South Dakota, are seeing strong yielding crops, some yields are falling short of 2024 due to impacts from early season moisture stress. Quality is variable, but in general, it looks like a near average crop for protein levels, although there are pockets that fall short of 14 percent. Grade quality is high, with the exception of some lighter test weights, and pockets of higher Fusarium damage. The biggest challenge appears to be notably lower vitreous kernel content, due to untimely harvest rains in a broad part of the region.

Demand is projected nearly steady with a year ago. The largest notable decline is in anticipated feed use, as last year significant quantities of feed quality wheat were produced, due to untimely harvest rains, which prompted some train movements into feed channels. Domestic food use is currently projected at 260 million bushels, up slightly from a year ago. HRW and HRS wheat pricing spreads are playing a larger role this year, with more available supplies of HRW and no acute shortage of protein keeping those prices and quality very competitive.

On the export front, early sales are running about 5 percent behind a year ago, in line with USDA’s current projection for the year. On a positive note, sales to Mexico, Japan, Korea and Taiwan, and many customers in the Caribbean and Central America are steady to higher.

This stronger demand is being offset by lower trends in our top market, the Philippines, and sharply lower demand from Europe and China.

Acceleration in demand is being seen in some markets due to low harvest time prices, and an unexpected pick up in producer selling at harvest pressuring basis, due to slow soybean exports, and storage pressure. Hopefully we can catch an uptick in both basis and futures into the fall period, as harvest pressure erodes, and export demand continues to accelerate.