WMR - 2025 Durum Situation

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: September 8, 2025

The 2025 U.S. durum crop is looking at a second consecutive strong production year, although yield results contrast between Montana and North Dakota. Buyers view the market as comfortable in the short-term, as they assess the quality distribution of the recent harvest. Prices at the producer level remain at a premium to hard red spring wheat, but have fallen from earlier levels.

The August USDA report estimates the North Dakota yield at 47 bushels per acre, the same as 2024. The Montana yield is estimated at 27, up from 23 in 2024. With a higher national yield, and higher planted area, U.S. production is estimated at 87 million bushels, up from 80 million in 2024, and above the five-year average of 62 million.

Demand from U.S. mills has been slow. This is likely due to a combination of increased substitution of HRS in some pasta products, and an increase of Canadian durum imports through early summer, as U.S. buyers anticipated tariffs being imposed. In its August report, USDA is estimating 2025/26 durum use for food at 85 million bushels, down from 88 million last year.

Export demand is estimated at 25 million bushels, up from 19 million in the 2024 marketing year. Current sales to date, June to mid-August, are at 7 million bushels, nearly 30 percent higher than a year ago at the same time. This is a positive trend, as overall world durum trade is projected lower due to better crops in the EU and North Africa. Italy and Mexico are the top two markets to-date, each with nearly 2 million in purchases.

Quality on the 2025 U.S. crop has been variable, with some parts of the region seeing notable color loss from mid-August rains, and other areas reporting some lower test weights, or lower than expected protein levels. Many other areas report excellent color and grade quality. This variance in quality will likely expand quality pricing scales at the local elevator.

The final outcome of the Canadian harvest is always a key variable in driving International trade flows and world durum values. Historically low carryover levels of durum in Canada, and moderate to significant drought conditions in 2025, have likely tempered their pre-harvest export sales pace. Adverse rains in August have raised concerns about quality, and if further harvest confirms greater than expected quality impacts, it would be supportive to durum values.