By: Jim Peterson
Posted: March 6, 2025
The U.S. wheat marketing year is three-fourths complete and current export sales total 724 million bushels, 10 percent ahead of the pace for the same period a year ago. USDA is currently projecting exports will reach 850 million bushels by the end of May, a 20 percent increase over last year. This implies that while the U.S. has enjoyed stronger export demand this year, an even greater acceleration in sales will be needed in the final four months to reach USDA’s goal. Sales have been tempered in recent months by a strong dollar, and robust competition from Canada, Australia and Argentina. A positive that should support an improved sales pace in nearby months is some curtailing in Russian wheat exports.
The top ten list looks similar to recent years with some variance in trends by market. Mexico is the dominant market with nearly 20 percent of total U.S. exports to-date. Stronger exports of hard red winter and soft red winter to Mexico, along with steady hard red spring wheat demand are supporting the sharp gain in sales. Future sales into that market may be curtailed if proposed tariffs lead to retaliation on ag products by Mexico.
In the Asian region, the U.S. continues to have a lot of success, in spite of strong competition from both Canada and Australia. Seven of our top markets are in Asia with Korea, Thailand and Indonesia all showing a notably stronger buying pace. Soft white wheat is pacing a majority of the increased sales volumes in these markets, as it is the most competitively priced class of U.S. wheat with a broad base of good quality attributes in the 2024 crop. Some of the increased demand for soft white wheat in these markets has also been for feed.
The Philippines, Japan and Taiwan are holding generally steady with a year ago, but probably below early season expectations for demand. Canadian and Australian gains, as well as weaker economic conditions are all contributing factors. A better export pace will likely be needed in these three larger volume markets to help achieve USDA’s export projection for the year.
The stronger sales into both Italy and Nigeria are driven largely by hard red spring wheat sales, but also hard red winter in Nigeria. Demand is supported by a need for quality for producing higher end bread products, as well as blending with lower quality EU and Russian wheat.
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