WMR - Southern Hemisphere Carving Larger Share of World Wheat Exports

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: May 1, 2025

The 2024 marketing year will be drawing to a close at the end of May, and there have been some dramatic market share shifts in global wheat trade this year. Russia and the EU have seen significant declines in their share of world wheat trade, with the Ukraine seeing a shallower decline. In Russia, high export taxes, and quotas were employed by the government to limit exports due to the uncertainty over 2025 production. Declining wheat inventories and concerns about consumer inflation also likely contributed to the less liberal export policy from Russia. In the EU, both production and quality shortfalls in the 2024 crop hampered their ability to compete in key markets, and elevated their need to use more of the crop domestically.

Both the US and Canada will end the marketing year with a larger share of global wheat trade. Higher exports have been driven by more robust crop sizes and unique advantages for quality in the predominant classes of wheat exported. In the US, final exports may have been tempered a bit by uncertainty regarding tariffs, and tighter inland freight costs and availability early in the marketing year. In Canada, periods of tighter inland freight availability may have also impacted final trade volumes.

The Southern Hemisphere is the biggest year-to-year winner in the share of global wheat trade. Larger than expected crops in both Argentina and Australia, and a more liberal export policy from Argentina have propeled export trade. Exports from those two countries are most competitive against US producers in the Asia and South American region, but also find their way as far as the Middle East and Europe.

Global wheat trade declined from 8.1 billion bushels in the 2023 marketing year, to 7.6 million in the current year. Tighter economic conditions in large buying countries, larger domestic crops in importing countries, as well as competition from rice have all been impactful variables in the lower trade. Another factor may be the lower export trend from Russia in the current marketing year, which created less supply push onto the global wheat market.