WMR - World Durum Production Projected Steady in 2025

By: Jim Peterson

Posted: May 1, 2025

Early projections for the 2025 world crop, according to the International Grains Council, are for production to hold near the 2024 level of 1.3 billion bushels, and remain about 6 percent above the recent five-year average. The price premium of durum to other classes of wheat is helping to maintain, and expand marginally, planted area for durum.

The EU and North African regions are currently projected to have production that is 8 and 15 percent, respectively, higher than 2024. Production in the EU is on pace to rebound to nearly 290 million bushels, up from 265 million. The largest gain will come in Italy, followed by Greece, with France and Spain holding steady. Production in North Africa is currently pegged at 165 million bushels, up from 143 million, with all three major countries expecting larger crops. Algeria’s crop is up slightly to 80 million bushels, compared to 76 million a year ago. Tunisia is pegged at 48 million bushels, nearly 20 percent larger than a year ago, and the best production in more than 10 years. Morocco has still dealt with drought issues through the winter month, impacting crop potential and keeping production below typical levels, but production is expected to reach 37 million bushels, about 30 percent higher than a year ago.

In Turkey, Russia and Kazakhstan, early production expectations are steady with a year ago. Transparency on actual production and quality is always a challenge, as is market impact from government involvement with export and import policies. It does appear that production from all three countries will continue to play an important role in world durum trade again in 2025.

Mexico is anticipated to have another year of significant decline in durum production. The combination of government policy, drought and irrigation water restrictions and costs continues to hamper durum production. In 2025, production is estimated to be between 20 and 25 million bushels, about 50 percent less than last year, and well below their recent peak of nearly 80 million bushels.

In Canada and the US, early production projections are for crops that are 5 to 8 percent lower than a year ago. Planted area will be steady to higher in both countries, but given the infancy of the growing season, and concerns about subpar soil moisture across large sections of the main durum regions, yield outlooks are tempered. Still, production in both countries is expected to remain about 15 to 20 percent above recent five-year averages.

Harvest of the 2025 world durum crop will commence in the month of May across parts of Morocco, and some parts of Turkey and the Middle East, and proceed into Tunisia, Algeria and southern areas of Europe in June. While production potential is becoming less of a risk factor in these regions, compared to a few months ago, late season drought can still impact yields. Quality will become the larger risk variable in the coming months in these areas, and that was the variable that significantly impacted the crop in parts of France and Italy last year. In Canada and the US, growing season moisture patterns will become the most important variable driving production potential and price trends.