WMR - World Durum – Where are we headed in 2026?

Prior to 2025, the conversation around world durum supplies was one of tighter than average supply and demand fundamentals and declining ending stocks. In fact, ending stocks reached a near three-decade year low in 2024. This was the result of major production related issues in many of the top durum producing countries. Prices during this time frame were extremely sensitive to shifts in demand and other market factors and trended higher than average. However, production rebounded in 2025, and, as the supply situation evened out, prices have been relatively stagnant for the last year or so. Attention has turned to 2026 crops and below is a summary of how things look so far.

Mexico

Traditionally a net exporter of durum, drought significantly impacted Mexico’s durum production in 2025 and they became a net importer of durum. While growing conditions look to be improved for the 2026 crop and their production is sure to be significantly higher, estimates still have their production estimated to be lower than average.

Europe

Lower production is forecast in most European producing countries in 2026. Production estimates range from a very small production decline to some citing possible double-digit percentage production declines. Stagnant prices and abundant supplies led to lower planted acreage, and even though weather conditions so far appear to be mostly mild, yields are not expected to reach levels seen one year ago.

North Africa

This region was plagued by varied drought situations for three years leading up to the 2025 production. Production in 2025 rebounded nicely due to better seasonal growing conditions. Conditions have looked mostly promising throughout much of the 2026 growing season and current projections indicate a durum crop of similar or slightly larger size than last year, indicating likely flat demand.

U.S./Canada

Both Canada and the U.S. have had decent durum crops in the years following the 2021 and 2023 drought years. Replenished supply levels and stationary prices indicate likely acreage declines for 2026. Stats Canada’s Estimate’s of Field Crop Acreage report indicates a 2.5% decline in durum acreage this year. The USDA Prospective Plantings Report indicates U.S. producers may cut durum acreage by 11%. Whilethe final acreage remains unknown and growing conditions have a major impact, production in both counties is estimated lower than last year, barring any major weather impacts. The build up of supply levels will likely mitigate any manageable production declines.

Turkey

Production in Turkey dropped in 2025, but reports indicate that the country’s production is in line to increase this year by 15-20%. This could result in higher exports, but likely not near the high level seen a few years ago.

Summary

Overall world durum production looks to be on track to decline, at least slightly, in 2026. Demand tends to be relatively inelastic for durum and expectations are that it will increase in 2026 based on current supply and price levels, but is unlikely to outpace production. That indicates supplies will continue to remain adequate, absent any major harvest or production issues. For the second year in a row, trade is projected lower based off projections for continued good production in most producing and importing countries. Ending stocks will likely trend lower, but perhaps not enough to instigate a major price response. The current analysis doesn’t show much indication of a return to bullish prices, however, as we’ve learned before, one or two major production issues or black swan type events can change the trajectory quickly. Great attention will be paid to harvest starting in May and the planting and development of the U.S. and Canadian crops.