WMR-Winter Wheat Production down Sharply

The winter wheat crop has been closely watched this spring as drought, heat and even freezing conditions have impacted crop conditions. The May USDA Crop Production report provided the first estimate for 2026 winter wheat, and while expectations were for a smaller crop compared to 2025, the projected 25% decline caught many by surprise. Total winter wheat production is pegged at 1.05 billion bushels, the smallest in decades. Winter wheat seedings were down marginally from a year ago, but the bigger driver for the production fall is yield, the average of which is projected to be down over 7 bushels per acre to 47.6.

The accompanying chart shows winter wheat production by class for the past several years. Production of white winter wheat (hard and soft combined) tends to remain relatively stable. This year’s production is projected to be down 5% to 231 million bushels. The SRW region has seen fairly stable production after coming off a large production year in 2023. This year’s SRW is estimated at 301 million bushels, down 15% from last year due to lower harvested acreage and slightly lower yields. HRW, the largest winter wheat class, could drop to 515 million bushels a 36% declined compared to last year.

After strong crops the past two seasons, this year’s production has been afflicted by dry conditions and other challenges. The production cut is substantial and will have impacts on the overall U.S. supply and demand situation as HRW is the largest production class. As illustrated by the chart below, condition ratings in the winter wheat crop have declined during the spring months, especially compared to last year and the five-year average. Each week USDA/NASS estimates the condition of the crop, ranging from very poor to excellent. These condition ratings can be translated into an index, with a higher number being preferred. The current condition rating is the lowest seen in some time.

Harvest of the HRW crop is now underway and actual yields will soon verify whether the estimates are accurate. Drought has pushed the maturity of the crop and harvest is looking to be early in most HRW states. Ironically, harvest has recently been delayed due to rainfall, added further complications to an already stressful year. Production estimates for major HRW states are:

Kansas – 215 million bushels, down 38%

Oklahoma – 64 million bushels, down 40%

Montana – 82 million bushels, down 18%

Texas – 48 million bushels, down 44%

Colorado – 34 million bushels, down 52%

South Dakota – 25 million bushels, down 22%

Nebraska – 16 million bushels, down 58%

Production estimates will shift as harvest progresses, and factors such as changes in abandonment levels and yields will drive those estimates. Regardless of the final outcome, this year’s HRW crop will take a big production hit.