WMR-Strong Export Sales in 2025-26

Export sales of U.S. wheat are projected to be the highest in five years due to a rebound in supplies of HRW, price competitiveness on the world market, and good quality across wheat classes. The most recent estimate for U.S. wheat exports, for the marketing year which ended May 31, is 910 million bushels, up 10% from a year ago. Provided below is further insight on durum and HRS sales.

Durum

Durum sales have been strong most of the marketing season. As the accompanying chart shows, sales to almost all of our top customers are higher year on year. Early season sales to Mexico spurred the increased sales pace. Mexico is traditionally a durum exporter, but drought significantly reduced their production and U.S. sales to the country surpassed 4.5 million bushels. Demand from Venezuela has also been stronger throughout the season with 1.4 million bushels in sales. Demand from Italy and Algeria, traditionally the top two U.S. durum markets, was slower to start out the year, but picked up as the year went on. U.S. exports to both countries was driven by the need to upgrade the quality of the domestic crop. Current data indicates durum sales of 23 million bushels, a whopping 10 million bushel gain compared to a year ago. World dynamics and domestic production levels will determine if the strong demand continues in to the next marketing year. Early indications are for stronger world durum production, which may reduce overall import demand.

HRS

A result of good production levels in recent years and continued strong demand for higher protein wheat, HRS sales have been relatively stable on a trendline basis. HRS was the largest class of wheat exported in 2023/24 and 2024/25 as HRW exports fell after back to back drought years. HRW sales increased substantially this year, while HRS sales dipped slightly. While HRS sales are about 5% lower than a year ago at 232 million bushels, exports have exceeded preharvest expectations. Sales to many of our large, top markets remain relatively stable. Preliminary data for the year has the top five customers as – the Philippines, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan and Korea, with sales to the Philippines and Japan slightly lower, and sales to Mexico, Taiwan and Korea higher than 2025. While exports are down to some of the other top ten markets including Italy and Thailand, gains were made in other countries. Sales to Nigeria had reached almost 7 million bushels, an increase of 12% and HRS exports to Colombia were nearly double last year’s pace. While USDA doesn’t release class by class estimates until July, HRS exports have the potential to remain strong in 2026-27 if production is promising.