WMR - Prospective Plantings Report Indicates Lower Wheat Acreage

The March Prospective Plantings Report is one of the most anticipated USDA reports. The report provides a glimpse into potential acreage makeup, and while final acreage numbers can vary significantly, it is still a major market moving report. The report is based off producer surveys the first half of March, thus price shifts in both crop and input prices have likely already impacted some acreage decisions.

Nationally, the report indicated producers plan to plant 84.7 million acres of soybeans, which came in below pre-report estimates, but is 4% higher than a year ago. The corn number came in slightly above expectations at 95.3 million, but down 3% from 2025. The national all wheat number was 43.8 million acres, below the average trade estimate of 44.6 million and the lowest wheat acreage number since records began in 1919. The lower than expected soybean and wheat numbers did garner the attention of the market shortly after the report, providing a boost to prices, but then waned in the days after the report.

By wheat class, national acreage estimates are:

HRW – 23.1 million, down from 23.6 in 2025

SRW – 5.79 million, down from 6.1 in 2025

White Wheat – 4.2 million, similar to 2025

HRS – 8.78 million, down from 9.44 in 2025

Durum – 1.95 million, down from 2.1 in 2025

Spring wheat acreage is forecast to decline about 6% in 2026. The largest decline is forecast for North Dakota with a projected 400,000 acreage drop to 4.7 million. Montana’s acreage is estimated steady at 2.15 million, Minnesota is forecasting a 10% decline to 1.04 million and South Dakota could see a 30,000 acre decline to 650,000. Uncompetitive prices and rising fertilizer prices are the primary potential reasons for the decline.

U.S. durum acreage, estimated at 1.95 million, would be an 11% decline from the previous year. Durum prices have been relatively stagnant in recent months due to large world supplies and current prices indicate a lower than normal premium over spring wheat. The estimate for North Dakota is 1.07 million acres, a decline of 13% and in Montana acreage is forecast to drop by 90,000 to 800,000 acres. Desert Durum acreage is projected slightly higher.

The accompanying chart shows potential acreage shifts by crop in North Dakota based on the March 31 report. One item to note is that overall crop acreage is nearly half a million acres lower than 2025, indicating that producers plan to leave more acres fallow, or the more likely explanation that many producers remain undecided on some acres. Spring wheat stands to lose the most acres at 400,000, with corn close behind at 300,000. Durum acreage in North Dakota is projected to be 160,000 lower than last year and smaller losses are forecast for dry beans, flax, peas and lentils. The crops that look to gain in acreage are canola with an additional 270,000 acres, soybeans gaining 150,000 acres and sunflowers up 65,000 acres. Hay acreage is estimated to be 160,000 higher.

While the report only gives an indication of possible acreage, and both the market and producers often react to the report, the general outlook right now is for smaller wheat and corn acreage, but higher soybean and canola acreage. The final acreage number will change from now until the June report, but the overall trend is likely be the same.