Global Wheat Production to Decline in 2026

The initial look at global wheat production, issued by USDA in May, points to a 3 percent decline in potential production. USDA projects 30.1 billion bushels, down from last years record level of 31 billion. All six of the key export countries are looking at smaller crops at the current stage, which will tighten available supplies for trade, but tempering this is larger crops in the key import regions of North Africa and the Middle East, which lessen import demand.

As the accompanying chart illustrates, the sharpest year-to-year declines will be in the U.S., the EU, Argentina and Australia. The U.S. is looking at the smallest wheat crop since 1972, dependent on the growing season for the northern winter wheat regions, and the spring wheat crop. In both the U.S. and the EU, lower price returns on wheat in the 2025 marketing year resulted in lower planting interest from producers, and both countries have also faced extended drought stress in key production regions. In both Argentina and Australia, producers are also planting fewer acres to wheat due to the sharp increase in production costs for wheat. The 2026 crop is currently being planted, and the sharp rise in diesel and fertilizer prices, along with shortfalls in availability of fertilizer, have hit at the most inopportune time, trimming acres. An added variable to watch for final Australia production is the timing and strength of the building El Nino, which historically leads to extended droughts in Australia.

Canadian production is lower due to reduced planted area, and anticipation of a shift back to trend line yields, compared to the above-average yields in 2025. The largest concern in Canada, at the present time, revolves around final planted acres. Seeding has been quite delayed in parts of central and northern Saskatchewan, as well as parts of northern Manitoba, due to excess moisture in April, and cold soil temps. Favorable weather will be needed in the first half of June to reach initial acreage estimates for the year, which were already lower than 2025.

Russian production is currently pegged lower, primarily based on a late, cold spring impacting the spring wheat portion of the crop, and slightly lower winter wheat yields. More favorable conditions in recent weeks, may lead to slight increases in subsequent production projections, but the final crop is still likely to fall below 2025.

World wheat consumption is projected to hold steady with the previous year at 30.2 billion bushels. This will cut into carryover stocks by the spring of 2027, dependent on the final production level for the world crop. World trade is expected to decline from 8.2 billion bushels, down to 7.8 billion, with all major export countries looking at lower export potential, with the exception of Russia and the Ukraine.

The initial export outlook for the U.S., issued by USDA in May, is 775 million bushels, down 15 percent from 2025. Initial market price responses to the declining crop conditions in the central and southern hard red winter wheat regions, and projections for sharply lower spring wheat acres, likely drove the more cautious initial projection. A decline in market prices in the U.S. in late May, have put U.S. export values in a more competitive situation which may lead to higher export projections going forward. Nonetheless, supplies in the U.S. will be relatively tighter than many competitor countries, posing a challenge to exports to world price buyers, and shifting more of our demand into traditional buyers seeking quality.

A variable that will add to pressure for all wheat exporters in 2026, is the fact that key import regions in North Africa and the Middle East are harvesting exceptional crops. In 2026, these regions are expected to produce 1.7 billion bushels, up 30 percent from 2025. While production levels are small compared to other individual, traditional export countries, the more robust domestic production will directly lower needed imports. These regions imported nearly 2 billion bushels in 2025, or nearly 1/4th of world wheat trade, and imports may fall by 10 percent or more to those regions.