Wheat Markets - Lower HRW Crop Pushes Prices to A Premium Over HRS

The 2026 HRW crop is projected to be a whopping 42% lower than last year at 463 million bushels, the smallest in decades.

U.S. Future Trends - Minneapolis - Hard Red Spring | Kansas City - Hard Red Winter | Chicago - Soft Red Winter - World Prices

This lower production is the result of reduced planted acreage and a harvested-to-planted ratio of 67%, nearly ten percentage points lower than last year, as producers harvested fewer fields for grain due to low yield potential. The weather concerns early in the year started moving prices higher in February, with HRW futures gaining nearly $2.00 since then. While HRS futures also made some gains, they were not as substantial, and KCBOT HRW futures are now at a rare premium to MGE HRS futures. The current premium is over 50 cents per bushel, while typically that is reversed, with MGE at a 50-cent premium over KCBOT. Will this continue? Potentially through some of this marketing year, but with harvest nearly finished and HRW production known, further gains in that premium may be limited. Also, there is potential for higher spring wheat demand as customers consider smaller HRW supplies and how that may impact their HRS and HRW blends. In general, export demand for HRS has been relatively consistent lately as it is one of the only sources of high-protein wheat. Demand will be a primary factor in any potential price support moving forward.