Wheat Markets - Durum Prices Still Tied to a Comfortable World Situation

Durum acreage is down 19% in the U.S. this year, production is projected to be down 23%, and the current year’s crop is quite unknown given the challenges of the growing season. So, why are prices stagnant? The answer is ample world production. World durum production is expected to outpace consumption by 60 million bushels this year, the largest amount in recent years and definitely a reversal from the long period (2024 and earlier) when consumption outpaced production, leading to shortages. While both U.S. and Canadian durum production is expected to be lower this year, North African durum production is expected to increase by nearly 40% to 240 million bushels after three years of drought-related production declines. That region accounts for nearly one-third of all world durum imports, so its higher production will no doubt reduce import demand this year. Additionally, production is higher in Turkey, which will also reduce import demand from that country. While final quantity and quality of the North American durum crops will potentially dictate some price movements and could add price support if results aren’t optimal, the world supply situation may limit substantial upside potential.