WMR-2019 U.S. Spring wheat acre expectations
By: Jim Peterson
Posted: Mar 25 2019
WMR-2019 U.S. Spring wheat acre expectations
The first official survey estimate for 2019 U.S. spring wheat plantings will be released on March 29th. In general, most early projections from private and government sources expect an increase of 5 to 10 percent over 2018. Some estimates are even higher than 10 percent, but those estimates were made back in the late fall of 2018 when market dynamics were different and a delayed spring planting season was not expected.
In 2018, U.S. spring wheat acres reached 13.2 million, up 21 percent, or 2.2 million acres, from the previous year, and the highest level since 13.4 million in 2015. As the accompanying chart illustrates, gains were made in all major states: 33 percent in MN, 23 percent in ND, 16 percent in MT, and 10 percent in South Dakota. Those levels of gains are not likely this growing season, but another year of net gains in spring wheat acres is reasonable. A level closer to 5 percent or less seems more likely now, than the 10 percent plus gains being discussed early this winter.
Factors that are supportive for spring wheat gains include the discount of durum to spring wheat, a lower than average level of winter wheat acres planted in South Dakota, good yields on wheat in eastern North Dakota and into Minnesota the last two growing seasons, and concerns about soybean price trends with the unresolved China trade issue. Factors that will work to limit gains in spring wheat acres in the 2019 growing season include a delayed start to the planting season in many areas due to weather conditions and the late fall harvest, declines in spring wheat prices since last fall, more stable price and demand projections for corn, and a soybean market which has held up better than anticipated.
A five percent gain would take U.S. spring wheat acres to around 14 million acres, the highest level since 2008. The largest gains seem the most likely across both MT and ND where HRS will replace durum, with more minor gains across SD, offsetting a small retracement in Minnesota. The survey results released on March 29th will provide the first look at producer expectations, but as usual, the results may quickly be discounted due to the changing market and weather dynamics since early March. The actual weather conditions in April and May will certainty command attention if the planting season is significantly delayed. Nonetheless, it will set the stage for potential price direction as the 2019 planting season gets underway.