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Crop Progress Report October 1, 2013

Precipitation over the last week delayed harvest of the remainder spring wheat crop. As of September 29, 95 percent of the U.S. spring wheat crop had been harvested, up 2 percentage points from last week. Only North Dakota and Minnesota have spring wheat that remains to be harvested. Yesterday, USDA updated their acreage estimates. U.S. spring wheat acreage is now estimated at 11.6 million acres, down 700,000 acres from the previous estimate due to weather conditions that did not allow all acreage to be planted. Partially making up for the lower acreage though is a projected record yield of 46.8 bushels per acre. Spring wheat production is now estimated at 532 million bushels, up from the previous estimate of 513 million, but slightly lower than last year.

Over 90 percent of the crop quality samples have been analyzed at the wheat quality lab at NDSU, with very few changes from last week. Average protein remains at 13.6 percent. Falling number values remain high with the average at 421 seconds. Test weight dropped slightly this week, but is still higher than average at 62.3 pounds per bushel (81.9 kg/hl). The crop currently grades a No. 1 Northern Spring, with an average vitreous kernel content of 74 percent - just below the 75 percent need to make a Dark Northern Spring.

Durum harvest was also slightly delayed with the wet conditions. In North Dakota 83 percent of the crop has now been harvested, behind the average of 92 percent. Durum acreage is estimated to be slightly lower than previously thought at 1.47 million acres. Yields though, are expected to be higher than average at 43.3 bushels per acre, up from the previous estimate of 38.3. Production is estimated at 61.5 million bushels, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 57.5 million bushels, but 25 percent below last year's level.

About 60 percent of the durum quality samples have been analyzed showing very few changes in quality factors over the last week. Average protein is 12.9 percent and thousand kernel weights edged even higher this week with the average now at 44.6 grams. Average falling number remains higher than 400 seconds. The crop currently grades a No. 1 Hard Amber Durum with average vitreous kernel content of 90 percent. However, some of the later harvested crop is showing lower vitreous kernel counts.



Percent Headed and Harvested by State
  9/29/2013 Last week Last year 5 Year Avg.
ND Spring - % headed 100 98 100 100
ND Spring - % harvested 95 91 100 97
ND Durum - % headed 100 99 100 100
ND Durum - % harvested 83 75 100 92
Minnesota - % headed 100 100 100 100
Minnesota - % harvested 100 99 100 98
Montana - % headed 100 93 100 100
Montana - % harvested 91 88 100 91
South Dakota - % headed 100 100 100 100
South Dakota - % harvested 100 100 100 100
U.S. - % headed 100 97 100 100
U.S. - % harvested 95 93 100 96


Crop Condition Ratings - Percent of Crop in each Condition
  V Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent Index
ND Spring - this week 0 4 20 59 17 389
ND Spring - last week 1 4 22 60 13 380
ND Durum - this week 0 2 21 55 22 397
ND Durum - last week 0 1 23 64 12 367
Minnesota -this week 2 5 27 56 10 367
Minnesota - last week 2 5 27 56 10 367
Montana - this week 3 5 21 61 10 370
Montana - last week 3 6 24 59 8 363
South Dakota - this week 1 7 42 42 8 349
South Dakota - last week 1 7 42 42 8 349
U.S. - this week 1 5 24 57 13 376
U.S. - last week 2 5 26 57 10 368
As of September 1, 2013


Percent Planted and Emerged by State
  7/7/2013 6/30/2013 7/7/2012 5 Year Avg.
ND Spring - planted 86 77 100 96
ND Spring - emerged 95 85 100 99
ND Durum - planted 88 78 100 88
ND Durum - emerged 96 83 100 96
Minnesota - planted 100 100 100 100
Minnesota - emerged 100 100 100 100
Montana - planted 96 94 100 97
Montana - emerged 100 100 100 99
South Dakota - planted 100 100 100 100
South Dakota - emerged 100 100 100 100
U.S. - planted 92 87 100 97
U.S. - emerged 98 93 100 99

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